January 31, 2003
Aid workers see Iraq war as catastrophic
Boston Globe

UN agencies and relief groups here are quietly stockpiling fuel, food, and medical supplies, in anticipation of a US-led attack that they say would result in a humanitarian catastrophe for Iraqis already vulnerable to famine and disease after years of UN sanctions.

By Elizabeth Neuffer, Globe Staff, 1/31/2003

BAGHDAD -- UN agencies and relief groups here are quietly stockpiling fuel, food, and medical supplies, in anticipation of a US-led attack that they say would result in a humanitarian catastrophe for Iraqis already vulnerable to famine and disease after years of UN sanctions.

Aid workers also are preparing to help the tens of thousands of Iraqis expected to flee Baghdad and other major cities if there is an intensive bombing campaign. Iran, Turkey, Jordan, and Kuwait are expected to try to prevent refugees from crossing into their territory, meaning Iraq's displaced could be left at the country's border without food or shelter.

Thousands of medical kits, which include antibiotics, syringes, surgical tools, and gauze, have been ordered to help doctors here aid the war wounded. Dozens of rubber containers capable of holding about 1,600 gallons of water each have also been purchased, in case water treatment facilities fail.

Generators, kerosene, blankets, and critical non-food items are being stockpiled. Aid workers are also storing excess fuel, anticipating gas shortages; some have even ordered bicycles. Hygienic kits are on order for tens of thousands, with everything from soap to shampoo.

But relief workers caution that their preparations are inadequate for the overwhelming need they anticipate. ''We are already in a humanitarian crisis,'' said Margaret Hassan, Iraq director for CARE, an American relief organization. ''Frankly, these people can't take on another one.''

The efforts of aid workers here are further impeded by money and manpower constraints. Most groups raise money from major donors once a crisis is underway -- not before it.

While the UN agencies have a major presence here, with hundreds of workers, UN staff may be withdrawn in the event of war. That would leave relief work to the nine private groups, many of whose staffs say they intend to stay throughout any such military strike.

The concerns of aid groups in Iraq echo conclusions reached by UN planners, who predicted in a confidential report this month that a war and its aftermath could injure more than 500,000 civilians and create nearly 1 million refugees.

The report, posted on the website of a British group that opposes UN sanctions, also predicted that war would result in severe hunger for some 3 million of Iraq's 23 million people, and that 900,000 Iraqi refugees would eventually need assistance. It said disease will spread in ''epidemic, if not pandemic,'' proportions.

An independent report by British and US specialists released this week concluded that war would gravely imperil the country's 13 million children, with at least 500,000 already malnourished or underweight.

The 12 years of UN sanctions, aid workers here say, have left Iraq more vulnerable than before the 1991 Gulf War. Then, despite the challenges of recovering from the just-ended war with Iran, Iraq faced a US-bombing campaign with its infrastructure largely intact and its citizens in overall good health. A pressing health concern then was childhood obesity.

Now, as Iraq faces a second US-led attack, its infrastructure is rickety, few have savings, and many Iraqis are suffering from high rates of disease and malnutrition. Between 1989 and 1999, the mortality rate for children soared by 50 percent, according to the UN.

''Iraq was not a Third World country in 1990,'' Denis Halliday, a former UN assistant secretary general who quit over UN sanctions, said in an interview when he visited Iraq recently. ''Now, you have this vulnerability out there.''

Recent UN statistics say that 49 percent of families still do not earn enough money to meet their basic needs. Twenty-four percent of children last year were chronically malnourished. On top of that, electricity has yet to return to 1990 capacity, public hospitals have antiquated equipment and drug shortfalls, and drinking water is ''insufficient in both quantity and quality,'' according to a report UN Secretary General Kofi Annan delivered to the UN Security Council in November.

''We really have to be prepared for the worst-case scenario,'' said Guiseppe Renda, deputy head of the International Committee for the Red Cross delegation in Baghdad. ''The situation can only be much worse than it was before.''

That many Iraqis are struggling to survive is evident to even the casual observer.

In Baghdad, women with babies in their arms beg on the streets. At restaurants, many workers take home the leftovers from guests' plates to their own families. Automobiles are dilapidated.

In cities like Basra to the south, poverty is inescapable. Raw sewage and trash choke the streets of a city once known for its glimmering, Venetian-style canals. Hundreds of children rely on high-energy biscuits supplied by the city's Chaldean Christian Church.

Access to food is what worries aid workers the most in the event of war. Now, 60 percent of the Iraqi population is entirely dependent on a ''food basket'' distributed by the Iraqi government, funded through the sale of Iraqi oil through the UN's oil-for-food program.

The Iraqi regime recently made double rations available of the key items, which include tea, oil, and sugar, so that families can stockpile them in the event of war. But most families sell their rations for needed cash.

''The majority of the population depends on the government for food handouts -- this makes them much, much more vulnerable,'' said Carel de Rooy, UNICEF's representative for Iraq.

Other aid groups worry that war would devastate the country's already deteriorating electrical grid. Millions of dollars in foreign aid have been invested in rebuilding power plants after the last bombing campaign. But there still isn't adequate power for hospitals to run air conditioners or for families to keep their lights on.

Drinkable water is in short supply. Even with backup generators working, relief specialists say, supplies of clean water will quickly run out.

''Iraq is not a hand-pump society,'' said Majeed Waleed, CARE's deputy project manager. ''It's dependent on infrastructure that even at its best is just limping along.''

Fears about water raise concerns about health. Aid officials say Iraq's public hospitals, already overwhelmed, would be in danger of collapse.

A US-led war, aid workers caution, is also likely to create thousands of refugees within Iraq. Some 80 percent of the country's population lives in cities, likely to be key bombing targets. For that reason the Red Cross has made plans to take care of at least 100,000 people they expect to flee their homes.

But UN and other relief workers say there is little else they can do. The UN announced last month that it has appealed for $37.4 million to get food and other humanitarian supplies in place in case of war, but that amount has yet to be raised.

''We'll do what we can,'' said Hassan, of CARE. ''But we do not expect to work miracles here.''

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